Dresden 2014 – scientific programme
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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 28: Extreme Events
DY 28.8: Talk
Thursday, April 3, 2014, 11:30–11:45, ZEU 146
Prediction of extreme temperatures: The issue of the performance measure — •Holger Kantz1 and Stefan Siegert2 — 1MPI for the Physics of Complex System, Germany — 2University of Exeter, UK
The perceived performance of every prediction scheme depends of the way how performance is measured. We compare different such performance measures on predictions of extreme temperature anomalies, using different forecast models. The embarrassing result is that not only quantitative details of performance but even the ranking of our four different models depends on the scoring scheme used, so that the notion of "the best forecast method" becomes very questionable.