Dresden 2014 – scientific programme
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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 28: Extreme Events
DY 28.9: Talk
Thursday, April 3, 2014, 11:45–12:00, ZEU 146
Predictors and Prediction Mechanisms of Extreme Events in Spatio Temporal Chaotic systems — •Nahal Sharafi1, Sarah Hallerberg1, and Marc Timme1,2,3 — 1Network Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization (MPIDS), D-37077 Göttingen, Germany — 2Faculty of Physics, University of Göttingen, D-37077 Göttingen, Germany — 3Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience, D-37077 Göttingen, Germany
Extreme events happen in a variety of dynamical systems. Marked by their high magnitude as well as their infrequent and irregular occurrence they can lead to disasters. Employing quantifiers of chaos we work towards identifying changes in the dynamical structure of complex, high-dimensional systems before an extreme event happens and use them as precursors of extreme events. As candiate precursors, we consider changes in different features of covariant Lyapunov vectors such as growth rate, localization, direction etc. before an extreme event happens in prototypes of chaotic systems. Apart from possible practical implementations, such as predictions, we use the relation between predictor and event in order to understand the dynamical origins of the events under study. For the Lorenz 1996 model, a paradigmatic model for high-dimensional chaotic systems, we computed covariant Lyapunov vectors and identified features of these vectors that indicate extreme events.