Dresden 2014 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 10: Networks, From Topology to Dynamics I (joint with DY and BP)

SOE 10.2: Vortrag

Dienstag, 1. April 2014, 15:15–15:30, GÖR 226

Spread of Infectious Diseases with Finite Infectious Period on Temporal Networks — •Andreas Koher, Lucian Willareth, Hartmut Lentz, and Igor M. Sokolov — Institut für Physik, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Newtonstr. 15, 12489 Berlin, Germany

Traversal in temporal networks is only possible, if paths are formed by a causal sequence of edges. Recently, a matrix formalism has been introduced in order to compute the causal path structure of temporal networks [1]. This formalism describes the spread of infectious diseases that can traverse the network even after arbitrary waiting times, i.e. a SI-model (susceptible-infected-model). Many infectious diseases however possess a finite infectious period, i.e. the time period after which the infection dies out, if it is not passed on. This can be implemented as an SIS or SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, respectively. In this work, we introduce a novel matrix formalism that allows for an explicit consideration of finite infectious periods, which gives a more realistic model of outbreak scenarios. As a central result, we compute the critical infectious period necessary in order to allow for percolation on a given temporal network. The introduced methods can be implemented efficiently and we demonstrate their capability on different datasets.

[1] Lentz et al., Unfolding Accessibility Provides a Macroscopic Approach to Temporal Networks, Phys. Rev. Lett. (2013)