Dresden 2014 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 13: Social Systems, Opinion and Group Dynamics

SOE 13.4: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 2. April 2014, 11:00–11:15, GÖR 226

Match data in soccer as a new trend: relevant information or unnecessary details? — •Andreas Heuer and Oliver Rubner — WWU Münster, Inst. f. Phys. Chemie, D-48149 Münster

Companies like Opta and Impire record a large amount of data, characterizing many details of soccer matches. Examples are number of passes, ball possession, shots, fouls, just to mention a few. However, the relevance of the different observables is far from evident. For example, does the running distance, covered by the players of a team, reflect the quality of that team?

From a scientific perspective different questions emerge when analyzing the individual observables: (1) How team-specific are these observables? Have different teams different characteristics, e.g. for the number of fouls? (2) How relevant are the individual observables to characterize the strength of a team? For example, is the fraction of ball possessions a good indicator of the team quality? (3) How can one measure the success of a team in a given match beyond the obvious number of scored goals which is often simply subject to good or bad luck. Whereas (1) and (2) deal with the overall behavior during a whole season, (3) analyzes the properties of individual matches.

Using statistical concepts, appropriate for the analysis of the time series of sports data [1,2], all questions can be answered in general terms. It will become clear which part of the match data is of real importance.

[1] A. Heuer, O. Rubner, Eur. Phys. J. B 67, 445-458 (2009).

[2] A. Heuer, "Der perfekte Tipp", Wiley-VCH (2012).