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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 5: Research for the Military I

AGA 5.1: Hauptvortrag

Dienstag, 17. März 2015, 14:00–14:45, HL 001

Arguments that Count: Physics, Computing, and Missile Defense — •Rebecca Slayton — 334 Rockefeller Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA

In a rapidly changing world, we rely upon experts to assess the promise and risks of new technology. But how do these experts make sense of a highly uncertain future? This talk discusses how scientists came to terms with the unprecedented threat of nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). It compares how two communities --physicists and computer scientists-- constructed arguments about the risks of missile defense, and how these arguments changed over time. It shows that our understanding of technological risks is shaped by disciplinary repertoires -- the codified knowledge and mathematical rules that experts use to frame new challenges. And, significantly, a new repertoire can bring long-neglected risks into view.

In the 1950s, scientists recognized that high-speed computers would be needed to cope with the unprecedented speed of ICBMs. But the nation's elite science advisors had no way to analyze the risks of computers so used physics to assess what they could: radar and missile performance. Only decades later, after establishing computing as a science, were advisors able to analyze authoritatively the risks associated with complex software -- most notably, the risk of catastrophic failure. The talk concludes with a discussion of contemporary proposals for ``proven" and ``adaptive" defenses.