Berlin 2015 – scientific programme

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AKE: Arbeitskreis Energie

AKE 12: Implications of Fluctuating Electricity Generation

AKE 12.3: Talk

Wednesday, March 18, 2015, 12:00–12:15, A 151

On the Improvement of Numerical Weather Prediction by Assimilation of Wind Power Data — •Stefan Declair, Klaus Stephan, and Roland Potthast — Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach, Germany

It is a demanding task for the transmission system operators (TSOs) to predict the amount of weather dependent renewabe energy in terms of net stability and power supply safety. In the BMBI funded project EWeLiNE, the German Weather Service and the Fraunhofer Institute on Wind Energy and Energy System Technology strongly support the TSOs by developing innovative weather- and power forecasting models and tools for grid integration.

With focus on wind energy, this contribution sketches the way of using wind power data from the growing amount of wind farms in Germany to improve the wind forecast in the planetary boundary layer via data assimilation (DA). This part of the atmosphere is important to observe, since it is heavily underobserved by conventional observation networks. Additionally, it is difficult to describe the strong spatiotemporal fluctuations in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model properly. The concept of DA provides an improved initial atmospheric state for the subsequent NWP model integration in terms of a best-fit according to observations and model background and is a crucial part in NWP.

After a short introduction, the DA system is shortly introduced and first results of improved wind forecasts from impact experiments are discussed.