Berlin 2015 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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AKE: Arbeitskreis Energie
AKE 15: Energy Systems (joint session DY/ AKE /SOE)
AKE 15.9: Vortrag
Donnerstag, 19. März 2015, 11:45–12:00, BH-N 243
Predicting critical links in complex supply networks — •Xiaozhu Zhang1, Dirk Witthaut1,2,3, Martin Rohden1,4,5, Sarah Hallerberg1, and Marc Timme1,6 — 1Network Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization (MPIDS), 37077 Göttingen, Germany — 2Forschungszentrum Jülich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research - Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), 52428 Jülich, Germany — 3Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne, 50937 Köln, Germany — 4IIIrd Institute of Physics, Faculty of Physics, Georg August University, 37077 Göttingen, Germany — 5School of Engineering and Science, Jacobs University, 28759 Bremen, Germany — 6Institute for Nonlinear Dynamics, Faculty of Physics, Georg August University, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
It has been observed that most large-scale outages in power grids can be traced back to single transmission line failures [1]. Yet, identifying which infrastructures in power grids and other supply networks are critical remains an open challenge, with severe consequences for network planning and stability. In this work we propose that the critical links can be reliably predicted from the network structure and the normal operation state prior to edge failure. Numerical simulations of a variety of flow network models confirm that the topological edge redundancy as well as renormalized linear response theory provide general key indicators for network robustness.
[1] Pourbeik et al., Power and Energy Magazine, IEEE 4.5 (2006): 22-29.