Berlin 2015 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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BP: Fachverband Biologische Physik

BP 21: Complex Contagion Phenmomena (focus session, joint SOE/DY/BP)

BP 21.6: Topical Talk

Dienstag, 17. März 2015, 11:45–12:15, MA 001

Containing epidemics using limited resources and information — •Olivia Woolley-Meza — Computational Social Science, ETH Zurich, Clausiusstrasse 37, CLD C6

Every action taken to contain disease spread carries a potential payoff but also a cost. Can we successfully contain epidemic spreading when resources are limited, and decisions on how to allocate these resources are based on imperfect information? I will discuss two cases where the interaction of economic constraints with disease spread transforms the spreading dynamics, usually making it harder to contain the disease. However, I will show that some constraints can work to our advantage. I first consider the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. Epidemics spiral out of control into ``explosive'' spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. The transition to this explosive regime is discontinuous -- once there are signs of a transition it can no longer be prevented. In the second case I will show you how the information resolution available to individuals determines the effectiveness of voluntary vaccination decisions. Although an epidemic cannot be contained when individuals use global information, the successful eradication of a disease can occur in an intermediate region of information resolution between the local and the global.