Berlin 2015 – scientific programme

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 37: Fluctuating Electricity Supply: Modelling of Generation, Backup and Storage (joint session AKE / DY / SOE)

DY 37.2: Talk

Wednesday, March 18, 2015, 15:30–15:45, A 151

Facing Europe: Revised wind power upscaling algorithms — •Bruno Schyska, Lüder von Bremen, and Alexander Kies — University Oldenburg - ForWind, Oldenburg, Germany

In the wind energy sector, upscaling models are used to estimate the total wind energy production within a certain region from a small number of reference sites. Each reference site is considered to be representative for a certain sub-region. Upscaling models therefore include selection schemes for the reference sites as well as statistical, partly non-linear, models to estimate the energy production in the sub-regions. Until now, upscaling models are mainly used on country level. For larger areas such as Europe no operational model and no research model exist.

In this study, revised upscaling models for the estimation of near real-time wind energy production in Europe are presented. These models include different approaches for the estimation of the energy production in the sub-regions as well as different selection schemes for the reference sites using cluster analyses. Cluster analyses are based on wind speed data from the MERRA reanalysis data set as well as on the geographical distribution of installed wind energy capacities in Europe. From the comparison, the selection scheme, which requires the minimal number of reference sites, is selected for long-term investigations of the wind energy production in Europe.