Berlin 2015 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 40: Physics of Sustainability and Human-Nature Interactions - Part I (joint session SOE/ DY/ jDPG/ BP/ AKE)

DY 40.1: Topical Talk

Mittwoch, 18. März 2015, 16:45–17:15, MA 001

The Industrial Society's natural Sustainability — •Hans G. Danielmeyer and Thomas Martinetz — Institut für Neuro- und Bioinformatik, Uni Lübeck

Human nature and industrial engineering form a predictable macro-system with six S-functional variables and biologically stabilized parameters [1]. S-functions display storing lifetimes with time shifts like Sinus functions with phase shifts. Since 18th century UK the real GDP per capita increased 100-fold; only a factor of 2.7 yields for the G7 the biologic limit of 118 years for the life expectancy.

This is orders of magnitude below all earlier predictions. The industrial society will be materially sustainable. But the present financial system is unsustainable because saturating growth and interest rates dry out saving, life insurances, and pension funds. This caused the Great Depression and the crash of 2008, not neoclassical excuses [2]. The only cure is bringing finance in line with human biology: return to the sustainable income distribution between Word War II and 1980; increase retirement age; continue innovation; and defend the G7 position globally. Believing in the Neoclassical Paradigm of exponential growth is already Chinas problem because it wastes resources with unsustainable investments.

[1] H. G. Danielmeyer and T. Martinetz, An exact theory of the industrial evolution and national recovery, www.inb.uni-luebeck.de, 2009 pdf. [2] C. Teuling and R.Baldwin, Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, CEPR London 2014, www.voxeu.org/sites/default/files/Vox_secular_stagnation.pdf