Berlin 2015 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 40: Physics of Sustainability and Human-Nature Interactions - Part I (joint session SOE/ DY/ jDPG/ BP/ AKE)
DY 40.2: Vortrag
Mittwoch, 18. März 2015, 17:15–17:30, MA 001
The decoupling of CO2 emissions and human development — Kai Kornhuber1, Dominik Reusser1, •Luis Costa1, Jürgen Kropp1,2, Rybski Diego1, and Schellnhuber Joachim1,3 — 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany — 2University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany — 3Santa Fé Institute
Evidence of a decoupling between greenhouse gas emission and socioeconomic development would benefit international climate negotiations in two ways. First, it would communicate to emerging countries that socioeconomic progress is not strictly connected with ever-growing emissions. Secondly, it informs developed economies on reduction targets that do not jeopardize progress. Using the Environmental Kuznets Curve as background and country-panel data between 1990 and 2013, a model was established to test postulated relationships between socioeconomic progress (measured using the Human Development Index (HDI)) and CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. An inverted U-curve with a time-dependent maximum moving towards higher HDI and lower per capita CO2 mission was established as the relationship delivering the lower fitting error. Extrapolating the global decoupling trend until 2050 returns global cumulative emissions of CO2 that are incompatible with meaningful with long-term climate protection targets. Individual countries presented remarkable differences in their decoupling dynamics. Further insights and implications of the analysis will be discussed, as well as future research needs.