Berlin 2015 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 40: Physics of Sustainability and Human-Nature Interactions - Part I (joint session SOE/ DY/ jDPG/ BP/ AKE)

DY 40.5: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 18. März 2015, 18:00–18:15, MA 001

Food demand and supply under global change: need for sustainable agricultural intensification — •Prajal Pradhan¹, Dominik Reusser¹, Matthias Lüdeke¹, and Juergen Kropp^1,2 — ¹Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam — ²University of Potsdam, Dept. of Geo- and Environmental Sciences, Potsdam

Global food demand is expected to increase by 60–110% between 2005 and 2050. Meeting growing food demand along with reducing agricultural environmental impacts is a global sustainability challenge. We investigated diet shifts, emissions, livestock feed, local food, and yield gaps to address this challenge. Globally, we identified sixteen dietary patterns. Diets common in developed world, exhibit higher emissions. Currently, 40% of global crops is fed to livestock. Two billions people are self-sufficient within 5^′ grid, while 1 billion Asians and Africans require inter-continental trade. However, they can become self-sufficient by closing yield gaps. By 2050, the global agricultural emissions will approach 7–20 Gt CO_2eq./yr and feed demand may increase up to 1.3 times. The number of trade dependent people will range 1.5–6 billion which may be further increased by 4–16% due to climate change. In future, diet shifts will significantly increase crop demand, emissions, and trade. These can be reduced by technological change, consuming local food, and closing yield gaps. Sustainability of inputs and management required to close yield gaps depends on how options are chosen and implemented. Hence, a combination of sustainable intensification, expansion, trade and diet shifts is required to feed growing population.