Berlin 2015 – scientific programme

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 50: Extreme Events (joint session DY/ SOE)

DY 50.4: Talk

Thursday, March 19, 2015, 16:00–16:15, BH-N 243

Statistical analysis of extreme weather events in a changing climate — •Philipp Müller and Holger Kantz — Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany

It is often claimed and from the perspective of atmospheric physics also plausible, that extreme weather conditions might occur more frequently in a warmer climate. We discuss statistical approaches to the characterization of the intensity and the frequency of extreme weather conditions on moving time windows. We present analysis results from the analysis of instrumental weather data from the past 100 years in central Europe. Temperature extremes, precipitation extremes, and wind speed extremes have different properties, whereas some very destructive extremes such as hailstorms have not been sufficiently recorded. Based on these data, we are unable to proof the existence of a systematic trend in extreme weather in Germany, although there are signatures which are consistent with a trend towards warming.