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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 12: Physics of Sustainability and Human-Nature Interactions (Symposium SYPS)

SOE 12.1: Hauptvortrag

Mittwoch, 18. März 2015, 09:30–10:00, H 0105

Anticipating and avoiding tipping points — •Timothy M. Lenton — University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

A 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly non-linear response in the internal dynamics of a system, qualitatively changing its future state. Large-scale 'tipping elements' have been identified in the Earth's climate system that may pass a tipping point under human-induced global change this century. At the smaller scale of ecosystems, some tipping points have already been observed, and more are anticipated in future. Our capacity to forecast such abrupt, non-linear changes has historically been poor. However, much excitement has recently been generated by the theory that some approaching tipping points carry generic early warning signals. I will critically examine the prospects for gaining early warning of approaching tipping points. Promising methods are based on detecting 'critical slowing down' in the rate a system recovers from small perturbations, and on accompanying changes in the statistical distribution of its behaviour. I will show examples of early warning signals in paleo-data approaching past abrupt climate changes, and in models being gradually forced past tipping points. I will also consider the conditions under which the methods fail. Finally, I will discuss how we might respond to early warning to try and avoid tipping points, especially in the climate system.