Berlin 2015 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 23: Physics of Sustainability and Human-Nature Interactions II (joint with DY, jDPG, BP) - session accompanying the symposium SYPS
SOE 23.4: Vortrag
Donnerstag, 19. März 2015, 18:00–18:15, MA 001
Exploring the safe and just operating space in an inhomogeneous world — •Wolfram Barfuss1,2, Boyan Beronov1,3, Marc Wiedermann1,4, and Jonathan Donges1,5 — 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany — 2Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany — 3Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Germany — 4Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany — 5Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
The Anthropocene has become reality during the 20th century, meaning that our species is pressuring the Earth's ecosystems on a global scale. In the meantime the challenge of eradicating poverty has not yet come to an end. Effectively dealing with these issues requires us to better understand the driving forces, feedback loops and tipping elements in the whole earth system, constituted from natural and social components. To take a step forward in this direction, we refine an existing conceptual coevolutionary model between social and ecological domains by adding inhomogeneities modelled after real-world data. We then propose an analysis framework, 'the safe and just space'-plot, which aligns with the current debate of simultaneously staying within the Planetary Boundaries and ensuring the social foundations and transforms it into a practical tool for studying socio-ecological models as well as real-world observations. First results from comparing the model outcome with real-world data indicate that the current state of the world is neither particularly safe nor particularly just.