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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 25: Networks: From Topology to Dynamics III (joint session DY / SOE / BP)

SOE 25.3: Vortrag

Freitag, 20. März 2015, 10:00–10:15, BH-N 128

Symbolic Regression and Network Analysis for the prediction of El Nino — •Markus Abel¹, Markus Quade¹, Ruggero Vasile¹, Avi Goz², Shlomo Havlin³, and Armin Bunde⁴ — ¹Ambrosys GmbH, Albert-Einstein Str. 1-5 Potsdam, Germany — ²Department of Solar Energy & Environmental Physics, Ben-Gurion University, Jerusalem, Israel — ³Department of Physics Bar-Ilan University Ramat-Gan 52900 Israel — ⁴Institute For Theoretical Physics, University of Giessen, Germany

In the context of the modeling of dynamical systems, statistical analysis and data-based modeling is a hihgly promising method. We use symbolic regression, in particular genetic programming and nonparamtric regression to find effective models for the prediction of el Nino events. The data used consist of a novel method to form a network from the correlations of grid points in the El Nino basin. We compare our results with existing methods. Depending on the method used a predictive power of up to 100% is achieved, i.e. all events are correctly predicted.