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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 8: Poster

SOE 8.16: Poster

Montag, 16. März 2015, 18:00–20:00, Poster E

Urbanization and Path Dependence in Urban Form — •Steffen Lohrey, Felix Creutzig, and Malte Roedl — Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)

Urbanization trends forecast a tripling of urbanized areas by 2030. Impacts include loss of arable land and biodiversity, but also a strong increase of both urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions. To a large part, these stem from urban transport. Transport emissions are known to be strongly influenced by urban form. A naive proxy of urban form, population density, is known to influence GHG emissions via the distance driven and modal shares. Urban form inhibits strong inertia, sudden change to a city*s layout is unlikely. Thus, the growth of today*s cities seems to determine tomorrow*s emissions with a high lock-in potential. In our work, we are assessing urban growth using non-linear modelling techniques, to assess whether path dependence is a pertinent concept to describe a possible carbon lock-in of urban transport systems. Techniques developed could help assess path dependence and help mitigate it. We here apply agent-based modeling motivated by urban economic concepts. Our results outline which parameters have crucial impact on potential lock-in, but also lock-out developments. We also tentatively suggest development strategies for different types of human settlements worldwide.