Regensburg 2016 – scientific programme

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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 5: Nuclear Energy Risks and Nuclear Proliferation

AGA 5.6: Talk

Friday, March 11, 2016, 12:30–13:00, H3

Insights from looking at the European Core Damage Frequency — •Nikolaus Müllner, Klaus Gufler, Steven Sholly, and Wolfgang Liebert — Institut für Sicherheits- und Risikowissenschaften, Universität für Bodenkultur Wien, Borkowskigasse 4, 1190 Wien, Österreich

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) allows to identify and quantify the various contributors for the risk of a severe accident of a given nuclear power plant (NPP). Sometimes the results are surprising: the large contribution of shutdown events to the overall core damage frequency (CDF) was unexpected.

The current work calculates a single Europe wide CDF. Only the "internal events" PRA results, which are publicly available for most plants, have been analyzed, thereby providing a lower boundary. Furthermore, the expected change of this figure in time for the next 20 years was predicted by using announced shutdowns and new grid connections.

The results show that plants from older designs (Gen II) dominate the European CDF. The combination of planned grid connections of new, Gen III and Gen III+ plants together with life time extension programs of existing reactors will not lower the European CDF in the next future.