Regensburg 2016 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AGjDPG: Arbeitsgruppe junge DPG

AGjDPG 5: Symposium SYSM

AGjDPG 5.1: Hauptvortrag

Donnerstag, 10. März 2016, 09:30–10:00, H1

Science Forecasts: Measuring, Predicting, and Communicating Scientific Developments — •Katy Börner — Indiana University

In a knowledge-based economy, science and technology are omnipresent and their importance is undisputed. Equally evident is the need to allocate resources, both monetary and human, in an effective way to foster innovation. In the preceding decades, data mining, metrics, and indicators have been embraced to gain insights into the structure and evolution of science; but there have been no significant efforts into mathematical, statistical, and computational models that can predict future developments in science, technology, and innovation (STI). While it may not be possible to predict the nature, essence, or the precise extent of impact of the next scientific or technological innovation, it is often possible to predict the circumstances leading to it, i.e., where it is most likely to happen and under which conditions. See Scharnhorst, Börner, and Besselaar, eds. 2012. Models of Science Dynamics: Encounters Between Complexity Theory and Information Science. Springer Verlag for an overview of major model types.

This talk reviews and demonstrates the power of computational models for simulating and predicting possible STI developments and futures. In addition, it showcases novel means to broadcast moderated STI forecasts to make them accessible and understandable for a general audience.