Regensburg 2016 – scientific programme

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 20: Economic models III

SOE 20.2: Talk

Wednesday, March 9, 2016, 17:45–18:00, H36

A Demographic-Economics Agent-Based Model:the Relationship between Economic Sustainability and Population Dynamics — •Yuting Lou — The University of Tokyo, Japan

This study sets up a bottom-up approach to the issue of population economics. We build an original demographic-macroeconomics multi-agent model (DEMM), which simplifies the macroeconomic dynamics into three core modules: producing, trading with neighbors and distributing, but with the coupled dynamical population structures. Based on thousands of simulations by tuning the control parameters (tax rate and innovation), we construct the phase diagrams for the pure economic dynamics in DEMM, whose core mechanism follows the law of jungle, i.e. in an anti-diffusional positive feed-back style. Without population dynamics, the society may have sustainable good economics with high GDP and low poverty rate, along with other four phases featuring different relaxation time and poverty level. Several main factors such as production efficiency, demand saturation, education efficiency and compulsory education are discussed. With the population dynamics, the phase diagrams are distorted in most cases and the society are waning towards extinction without poverty or towards massive poverty without extinction. Except for that the birth/death rate fluctuates in an alternate way, which may lead to prosperity followed by depression in both aspects of population and economics, there will be no rescue from the extinction and poverty.