Regensburg 2016 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 3: Networks: From Topology to Dynamics I (joint session SOE / DY / BP)
SOE 3.4: Vortrag
Montag, 7. März 2016, 10:45–11:00, H36
Effective Distances in Complex Networks — Flavio Iannelli1, •Andreas Koher2, Philipp Hövel2, and Igor M. Sokolov1 — 1Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Germany — 2Technische Universität Berlin, Germany
The analysis of global epidemics revealed that physical distances can hardly be used to forecast the outbreak dynamics. Instead, a network-based measure which has been introduced recently [1] allows to predict infection arrival times with a surprisingly high accuracy. The so-called effective distances are solely based on the (weighted) network topology.
We present an alternative approach, which is motivated by a fundamental property from the theory of random walks: The distribution of first passage times. This random walk based distance allows to forecast disease dynamics on various topologies. For the special case of highly heterogeneous networks it reduces to the previously introduced effective distance.
[1] Brockmann D, Helbing D "The hidden geometry of complex, network-driven contagion phenomena." Science. 2013;342(6164):1337--1342