Regensburg 2016 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 3: Networks: From Topology to Dynamics I (joint session SOE / DY / BP)
SOE 3.5: Vortrag
Montag, 7. März 2016, 11:00–11:15, H36
A Geometrical Approach to Infection Dynamics on Temporal Networks — •Felix Herrmann1, Philipp Hövel1, Vitaly Belik1, Andreas Koher1, Hartmut H. K. Lentz2, and Dirk Brockmann3,4 — 1Institut für Theoretische Physik, Technische Universität Berlin — 2Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Greifswald — 3Institut für Theoretische Biologie, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin — 4Robert Koch-Institut, Berlin
We investigate the extension of a recently introduced geometrical approach for the description of spreading processes on static undirected networks [1] to directed temporal networks. Its key quantity is a probabilistically motivated "effective distance" between nodes, which is based on the weights of the links and allows reliable predictions of disease arrival times and the identification of the origin of spreading processes. The approach has already been successfully applied to study infection dynamics on a static undirected air traffic network [1].
By demonstrating how this approach can be generalized, we contribute to a framework for the investigation of spreading dynamics on temporal networks. Specifically, we consider an empirical livestock trade network in Germany, consisting of 97,980 nodes (agricultural holdings) and 6,359,697 temporal edges (trade events) [2], and use a SIR model to simulate the local dynamics of the nodes. Strong fluctuations in the activity of the nodes render the application of the geometrical approach particularly challenging.
[1] D. Brockmann and D. Helbing, Science 342, 1337 (2013).
[2] H. H. K. Lentz et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 118701 (2013).