Regensburg 2016 – scientific programme

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 3: Networks: From Topology to Dynamics I (joint session SOE / DY / BP)

SOE 3.6: Talk

Monday, March 7, 2016, 11:15–11:30, H36

Controlling recurrent epidemics on temporal networks — •Vitaly Belik^1,2, Florian Fiebig¹, Hartmut H K Lentz³, and Philipp Hövel^1,4 — ¹Institut für Theoretische Physik, Technische Universität Berlin — ²Helmholtz Zentrum für Infektionsforschung, Braunschweig — ³Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute, Greifswald — ⁴Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Berlin, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin

We consider a rucurrent epidemic on a temporal network. The goal of the control is to reduce the prevalence or make the epidemic extinct, respectively. To this end we propose a protocol based on rewiring the edges away from infected nodes, after they are detected as those: instead of an infected node, we randomly choose a healthy one (or perceived as such). In contrast to coevolutionary adaptive networks, the intrinsic dynamics of the network is taken into account by our approach alongside with the adaptive rewiring. The proposed control scheme significantly expands the range of a disease-free parameter region. For example, on the network of German pig trade, diseases with detection times up to 10 days and infectious periods up to 3 months could be efficiently controlled by our method [1]. Thus changing the behaviour of trading partners could have significant impact on the epidemic outcome.

[1]V Belik, F Fiebig, HHK Lentz, P Hövel arXiv preprint arXiv:1509.04054