Regensburg 2016 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 7: Poster
SOE 7.12: Poster
Montag, 7. März 2016, 18:00–20:00, Poster B1
Optimal cervical cancer preventing strategies. Model for Moldova — •Andrzej Jarynowski1, 2 and Ghennadii Gubceac1 — 1Moldova State University, Kishinev, Moldova — 2Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland
We built the model, that aggregated the most important paths of infection (HPV virus), cancer development and prevention scenarios (more than 100 equations and 200 parameters). We observe both behavioral change (sexuality increase) and demographical change (population ageing). We have run computer simulation to prepare cost/benefit analysis for different vaccination strategies, various screening programs and preventive programs (using condoms) for Moldova, based on its own demography and sexual behavior. In our setup, obligatory vaccination seems to not be so crucial (for none of realistic scenarios increase of cancer cases is possible) for public health, as in most countries in European Union. However, national screening practice must be verified in terms of efficiency. We propose more optimal screening guidelines (with prevention cost 5-12k EUR per QALY), which could provide saving perspective in 10-15 year in range 150-300k EUR yearly. Targeted vaccination could be also consider, because population effect are similar to high frequencies screening schema with 1-1.5M EUR savings yearly.