Regensburg 2016 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 7: Poster
SOE 7.3: Poster
Montag, 7. März 2016, 18:00–20:00, Poster B1
A co-evolutionary conceptual model of global pre-industrial societies — •Jan Nitzbon1,2 and Jobst Heitzig1 — 1Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung — 2Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
The evolution of the earth system cannot be described without the ``human factor'' anymore. Co-evolutionary modeling approaches thus aim at incorporating socio-economic dynamics of the society into the description of natural systems in order to obtain a more holistic picture of the world-earth system.
We present a conceptual, low-dimensional, deterministic model which describes the co-evolution of globally aggregated key observables of the earth system. These include natural variables such as atmospheric, oceanic and land carbon stocks, as well as socio-economic quantities such as population, economic output or wellbeing. The goal of the model study is to identify the dominant feedbacks in the coupled dynamics of the ``ecosphere'' and the ``anthroposhere'' and to get deeper insights into the underlying topology of these spaces.
In particular we investigated a simplified model scenario which describes pre-industrial societies. Most of the model parameters can roughly be estimated on the basis of available global data. Those associated with a high uncertainty have been varied during bifurcation analyses. The results reveal a partition of the parameter space into several regimes which are characterized by qualitatively different transient and asymptotic behaviors of the system, ranging from ending up surely on an unpopulated hot desert planet to uninterrupted oscillations.