Bremen 2017 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AGPhil: Arbeitsgruppe Philosophie der Physik

AGPhil 5: Symposium: Epistemology of Big Data in Physics III

AGPhil 5.1: Hauptvortrag

Donnerstag, 16. März 2017, 17:15–18:00, GW2 B2900

Combining theory with Big Data to predict trends in extreme weather and impacts — •David N Bresch, Reto Knutti, and Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn — ETH Zurich, Switzerland

We combine theory-based simulation with statistical analysis of large volumes of unstructured data (Big Data) to predict trends in extreme weather and impacts. In collaboration with MeteoSwiss, we develop a prototype application of such an impact model. The natural science part investigates how data of unknown quality can be used to validate and calibrate weather and climate impact models. We analyse whether such data reduce the uncertainties in impacts. We identify the hurdles for such an approach to be implemented in an operational model. The philosophy part further develops uncertainty typologies in decision support to include uncertainty in Big Data. We apply argument analysis to the predictive inferences in the scientific part. We develop prerequisites to classify impacts from extreme weather to be applied to datasets from mobile communication. The synthesis part analyses conditions for transferring results to other fields, and implications from how the role of theory changes with Big Data for scientific methodology and understanding.