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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 50: Statistical Physics of Biological Systems I (Joint Session BP/DY)

DY 50.9: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 23. März 2017, 17:00–17:15, ZEU 250

Modeling the spread of West Nile Virus in Germany — •Suman Bhowmick¹, Philipp Lorenz², Philipp Hövel², and Hartmut H. K. Lentz¹ — ¹Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute, Südufer 10, 17493 Greifswald — ²Institute of Theoretical Physics, Technische Universität Berlin, Hardenbergstraße 36, 10623 Berlin

West Nile virus (WNV) is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) spreading in transmission cycle between mosquitoes and birds. In addition, horses and human are also the victims of WNV, being infected by blood feeding mosquitoes. In our current endeavour, a dynamic model has been devised to decipher the intricacy of the spreading dynamics of the West Nile virus.

The model which is of SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) type, comprises of 19 compartments. In this model, we tried to couple the terrestrial and aqueous stages of mosquitoes through a single ODE, for the simplicity. In addition to the local spreading dynamics, spatial spread through aerial movement (diffusion) and bird migration shall be included in the model.

As results, we will present solutions of the local infection model as well as an analytical expression for the basic reproduction number R₀. The seasonal and environmental impacts are also taken into the considerations. The associated map of the basic reproduction number R₀ will be investigated further along with the ODE coupled with network.