Dresden 2017 – scientific programme
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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 51: Extreme Events
DY 51.3: Talk
Thursday, March 23, 2017, 16:45–17:00, HÜL 186
An early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems — •Stephan Bialonski1, Rajat Karnatak2, and Holger Kantz1 — 1Max-Planck-Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany — 2Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and non-bifurcation type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) that is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events.