Dresden 2017 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 58: Posters - Networks

DY 58.2: Poster

Donnerstag, 23. März 2017, 17:00–19:30, P1A

Estimating outage probabilities of electricity grids under wind power injection — •Christoph Schiel, Pedro Lind, and Philipp Maass — Universität Osnabrück, Fachbereich Physik, Barbarastraße 7, 49076 Osnabrück, Germany

Increasing share of generated power by renewable energy sources in power grids, largely wind and photovoltaic, leads to the question how the stochastic nature of these sources and their corresponding fluctuating power production affects the grid stability. We investigate the probability of failures in electricity grid under wind power injection in dependence on the envisaged mean injected power, a critical power threshold for failure, and a time scale of human intervention to prevent outages. The wind power fed into the grid is estimated from empirical data for wind velocities measured at a wind turbine in the North Sea. Based on a statistical analysis of these data, we suggest a simple formula for estimating outage probabilities. To illustrate our findings, we apply the method to the problem of single transmission line outages in an IEEE test grid, where we replace conventional by wind power generators. Correlations of the obtained transmission line outages to the topological features of the injection nodes are discussed.