Dresden 2017 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 11: Physics of Collective Mobility (joint session SOE / DY / BP / jDPG, accompanying the symposium)

SOE 11.1: Vortrag

Dienstag, 21. März 2017, 14:45–15:00, GÖR 226

Ricatti-Langevin Dynamics for Modeling of Air Traffic Performance Disruption and Recovery — •Norbert Fürstenau and Monika Mittendorf — Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Flugführung, 38108 Braunschweig, Deutschland

We describe research towards a predictive assistance tool for airport tower controllers to support optimal arrival and departure scheduling under extreme weather conditions (Xevents). As a formal basis we derive a generic nonlinear dynamics model of performance disruption and recovery. It will be used as basis for a predictive algorithm (e.g. extended Kalman filter) as core of the assistance system. We first show that a simple logistic function approach is sufficient for fitting empirical arrival rate data under (disruptive) winter storm disturbance at an international German airport to obtain characteristic traffic performance parameters. A comparable approach was recently published [1] as empirical support for a phase transition hypothesis of the (anticorrelated) normal wind to storm transition. The basic model is formally equivalent to the simplified 2nd-order (two-state) laser equation and allows for simulation of the disruption/recovery dynamics that exhibits the expected controllability of the traffic disruption. The model is derived from a Ricatti-Langevin equation with time dependent control parameters (disruption / recovery time constants) and external deterministic and stochastic disturbance due to wind/gust speed variation.

[1] Fürstenau & Mittendorf (2016): Bernoulli-Langevin wind speed model for simulation of storm events. Z. Naturforsch. A, DOI: 10.1515/zna-2016-0238