Dresden 2017 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 15: Focus Session: Cities as complex systems

SOE 15.4: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 22. März 2017, 15:45–16:00, GÖR 226

Discovering the laws of urbanisation — •Filippo Simini and Charlotte James — Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, UK

In 2012 the world's population exceeded 7 billion, and since 2008 the number of individuals living in urban areas has surpassed that of rural areas. This is the result of an overall increase of life expectancy in many countries that has caused an unprecedented growth of the world's total population during recent decades, combined with a net migration flow from rural villages to urban agglomerations. While it is clear that the rate of natural increase and migration flows are the driving forces shaping the spatial distribution of population, a general consensus on the mechanisms that characterise the urbanisation process is still lacking. Here we present two fundamental laws of urbanisation that are quantitatively supported by empirical evidence: 1) the number of cities in a country is proportional to the country's total population, irrespective of the country's area, and 2) the average distance between cities scales as the inverse of the square root of the country's population density. We study the spatio-temporal evolution of population considering two classes of models, Gravity and Intervening Opportunities, to estimate migration flows and show that they produce different spatial patterns of cities. Moreover, both models suggest that the formation and growth of cities is possible only if the migration rate is sufficiently higher than the rate of natural increase.