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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 15: Focus Session: Cities as complex systems

SOE 15.9: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 22. März 2017, 17:15–17:30, GÖR 226

Predicting the response of urban real estate markets to socio-spatial dynamics — •Aike Alexander Steentoft and Markus Schläpfer — ETH Future Cities Laboratory, Singapore

Cities connect people and create opportunities for exchanges which promotes social and economic enrichment. In this work, we present a complementary perspective on how social life in a city interacts with its economic environment. More specifically, we analyze the gentrification phenomenon where urban migration boosts the real estate market. To that end, we use Twitter and Foursquare data to track the interconnected network of people and places in New York City from 2012 to 2016. Following the approach of Hristova, the socio-spatial dynamics are quantified using "four metrics of the social diversity of places which relate to their social brokerage role, their entropy, the homogeneity of their visitors and the amount of serendipitous encounters they are able to induce" [Hristova et al. 2016]. At the same time, we use Zillow data for New York City neighborhoods to track the dynamics of the residential real estate market where we define adjusted price and value indices to overcome biases caused by exogenous influences. We correlate these indices with the social diversity measures, contributing to the understanding of an adaptive economic environment, and ultimately providing early warning signals of escalating real estate prices.