Münster 2017 – scientific programme

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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 2: Missiles and Missile Defense - Rockets in North Korea, US and China

AGA 2.3: Invited Talk

Thursday, March 30, 2017, 11:00–12:00, S Aula

Is the United States Trying to Aim Its National Missile Defense at China? — •Theodore A. Postol — Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The United States has been pressing South Korea to accept the THAAD ballistic missile defense, supposedly to address the ballistic missile threat to South Korea from North Korea. However, it will be shown that the THAAD missile defense is very susceptible to simple countermeasures that are well within the technical capacity of North Korea to implement and that THAAD will not be capable of providing useful levels of defense for South Korea. On the other hand, THAAD has a very powerful radar known as the AN/TPY-2 which is much more powerful than what is needed for such a defense. The radar is also designed and equipped with communications systems to send tracking data directly to the US National Missile Defense. As such, these capabilities could be used to cue the new US Long-Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) currently under construction in Clear, Alaska, to locations where Chinese ICBMs will rise over the radar horizon of the curved earth. Such cuing information would substantially increase the time available for the LRDR to observe Chinese ICBM-payloads in an effort to differentiate between Chinese warheads and decoys. The cuing information could also be used by the US National Missile Defense to launch interceptors more quickly, theoretically increasing its capacity to use shoot-look-shoot tactics against Chinese warheads. This expansion of US National Missile Defense sensors by the US government and the lack of real defensive capacity to defend South Korea from the North create the appearance that the real US objective is to aim the US National Missile Defense against China rather than to defend South Korea.These technical facts help to explain why the US attempt to place a THAAD radar in South Korea has caused concern in China. They are also much like circumstances in Europe, where the US-NATO European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) continues to move forward in spite of the Iran Nuclear Deal, which has eliminated the alleged nuclear threat to Europe from Iran.