Münster 2017 – scientific programme

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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 2: Missiles and Missile Defense - Rockets in North Korea, US and China

AGA 2.4: Invited Talk

Thursday, March 30, 2017, 12:00–13:00, S Aula

The Aegis Missile Defense System and Future Nuclear Arms Reductions — •George N. Lewis — Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies Cornell University

Planned future development of the U.S. Navy's Aegis missile defense system, in particular the deployment of large numbers of the next generation SM-3 Block IIA interceptors, could severely and adversely affect future efforts to reduce nuclear arsenals. Current Aegis Block I interceptors, while in principle capable of intercepting ICBMS, cannot cover a large enough area to serve as the basis for a defense of U.S. territory. However, under current plans, the number of advanced capability Aegis missile defense ships is about to begin to increase rapidly. Similarly, the number of much more capable Block IIA interceptors, scheduled for first deployment in 2018, will similarly begin a rapid increase in the early 2020s. These Block IIA interceptors could cover the entire continental United States from a few off-shore locations. By the mid- to late-2030s there could be 400-600 or more Block IIAs (or successors) deployed, mostly on about 80 BMD ships. At that point, the number of US strategic-capable interceptors, including ground-based systems, could be comparable to the number of survivable Russian ICBM/SLBM warheads and larger than the number of Chinese warheads. This talk considers the potential effects of these deployments on future nuclear reductions, and possible steps to mitigate those effects