Berlin 2018 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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BP: Fachverband Biologische Physik

BP 30: Focus Session: Complex Contagion Phenomena I (joint session SOE/DY/BP)

BP 30.6: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 15. März 2018, 12:15–12:30, MA 001

Quantitative assessment of import risks for emergent infectious disease outbreaks — •Olga Baranov¹ and Dirk Brockmann^1,2 — ¹Robert Koch-Institut, Berlin, Germany — ²Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany

During the last decade outbreaks of emergent pathogens that potentially pose a risk of global dissemination have increased in number and magnitude. When new outbreaks occur, one of the key challenges is a quantitative assessment of the situation, especially concerning global spread. To this end, sophisticated computational models have been developed incorporating exact situation details, disease parameters and demographics. One of the key problems is that highly detailed models are difficult to gauge, because of the initial lack of parameters, substantially impacting the applicability of even the most sophisticated models. We propose an alternative approach for estimating relative import risk from network topology and outbreak origin. It is based on the assumption that during the initial outbreak phase, global import risk is determined by a low dispersal count regime. In this regime disease specific data play only a minor role. Using world aviation network, we demonstrate how import risk at any location can be inferred. We show that this method can be used to compute an airports dissemination profile as a function of outbreak location and how outbreaks in different regions lead to a different subset of key airports. Our method is fast and not limited to a particular type of infectious disease. It can be used as an initial risk assessment tool for public health researchers and policy makers that need to address a real world scenario.