Berlin 2018 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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BP: Fachverband Biologische Physik
BP 39: Focus Session: Complex Contagion Phenomena II (joint session SOE/DY/BP)
BP 39.10: Vortrag
Freitag, 16. März 2018, 12:15–12:30, MA 001
Effective Distances for Epidemic Spreading — •Andreas Koher1, Flavio Iannelli2, Igor M. Sokolov2, and Philipp Hövel1 — 1Technische Universität Berlin — 2Humboldt Universität zu Berlin
The analysis of global epidemics revealed that physical distances can hardly be used to forecast the arrival time of the first infected person. Instead, recent results on the global air traffic network suggest that network based measures, so called effective distances correlate well with actual detection times.
We compare numerical simulations on the global air traffic network with different measures that are based on shortest distances, parallel paths and the recently proposed random walk effective distance [1]. Furthermore, we extend the latter and propose an effective distance that is based on non-backtracking walks. This simple diffusion model allows to consider the directed nature of epidemic spreading and relates the hitting probability to the infection arrival time.
[1] F. Iannelli, A. Koher, D. Brockmann, P. Hövel, and I.M. Sokolov, Effective distances for epidemics spreading on complex networks, Phys. Rev. E 95, 012313 (2017).