Berlin 2018 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 56: Complex Contagion Phenomena I (Focus Session, joint SOE/DY/BP/SNPD) (joint session SOE/DY/BP)
DY 56.8: Vortrag
Donnerstag, 15. März 2018, 12:45–13:00, MA 001
Defining the scope: A context specific approach to identifying key airports during a pandemic — •Clara Jongen1,2, Olga Baranov2, and Dirk Brockmann1,2 — 1Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany — 2Robert Koch-Institut Berlin, Germany
Human transportation and mobility networks play an important role in the global spread of infectious diseases. Network theory is one of the key methods to understand the nature of these phenomena. In this context, a family of node and link centrality measures has been devised to identify network elements that facilitate the spread and thus require particular attention in the development of containment strategies. However, most centrality measures are not context sensitive, e.g. they do not account for the location of an outbreak. Using the example of disease dynamics on the global air-transportation network we introduce the concepts of node scope and confluence. These quantities are context dependent centrality measures that are designed to account for the initial outbreak location. We show that scope and confluence can strongly depend on regional aspects of an outbreak and can therefore be adapted to specific outbreak scenarios. We show that each airport is characterized by a node specific scope and confluence profile as outbreak locations are varied. Scope and confluence also permit to address what outbreak locations are particularly threatening to specific nodes in the network. Our method can be used as an assessment tool for understanding global disease dynamics and permit a fast yet specific assessment of an airport’s role in global disease dynamics.