Berlin 2018 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 76: Complex Contagion Phenomena II (Focus Session, joint SOE/DY/BP/SNPD) (joint session SOE/DY/BP)

DY 76.10: Vortrag

Freitag, 16. März 2018, 12:15–12:30, MA 001

Effective Distances for Epidemic Spreading — •Andreas Koher¹, Flavio Iannelli², Igor M. Sokolov², and Philipp Hövel¹ — ¹Technische Universität Berlin — ²Humboldt Universität zu Berlin

The analysis of global epidemics revealed that physical distances can hardly be used to forecast the arrival time of the first infected person. Instead, recent results on the global air traffic network suggest that network based measures, so called effective distances correlate well with actual detection times.

We compare numerical simulations on the global air traffic network with different measures that are based on shortest distances, parallel paths and the recently proposed random walk effective distance [1]. Furthermore, we extend the latter and propose an effective distance that is based on non-backtracking walks. This simple diffusion model allows to consider the directed nature of epidemic spreading and relates the hitting probability to the infection arrival time.

[1] F. Iannelli, A. Koher, D. Brockmann, P. Hövel, and I.M. Sokolov, Effective distances for epidemics spreading on complex networks, Phys. Rev. E 95, 012313 (2017).