Berlin 2018 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 23: Complex Contagion Phenomena II (Focus Session with EPS-SNPD) (joint session SOE/DY/BP)
SOE 23.12: Vortrag
Freitag, 16. März 2018, 12:45–13:00, MA 001
Comparison of Control Strategies for the Spread of Bovine Viral Diarrhea: A Stochastic Agent-Based Model — •Jason Bassett1, Pascal Blunk1, Thomas M. Isele1, Hartmut H. K. Lentz2, Jörn Gethmann2, Philipp Hövel1, 3, and Franz J. Conraths2 — 1TU Berlin, Berlin, Germany — 2Friedrich Loeffler Institute, Greifswald, Germany — 3BCCN, Berlin, Germany
Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD) is an important cattle disease due to its global prevalence and its economic implications [1]. In this work we have developed a stochastic agent-based model to describe the spread of BVD in Thuringia through trade mediated contacts of animals. The agents act at the level of the animal, the herd or the farm on a network of farms connected according to a supply and demand managing system, while the BVD dynamics are based on a model by [2]. We initialise the simulation according to a realistic farm size distribution for Germany and the state of Thuringia, and compare the results of the simulation with demographic and endemic data solely for the state of Thuringia. We also run the simulation for different parameter settings (scenarios) including vaccination strategies and currently implemented or considered regulations. Finally, we present and discuss some network analysis results on the simulated network [3].