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UP: Fachverband Umweltphysik

UP 4: Climate modelling

UP 4.2: Hauptvortrag

Montag, 5. März 2018, 14:15–14:45, G 1.011

The response of the stratospheric circulation to climate change — •Hella Garny — DLR Oberpfaffenhofen

The role of the stratosphere in the climate system is increasingly being appreciated, and it is known that the circulation of the stratosphere can significantly influence surface climate and weather. The fate of the large-scale circulation of the stratosphere in a changing climate is a much discussed topic in the last years. Progress has been made on the understanding of the mechanisms of the general acceleration of the circulation in response to climate change as simulated by models. However, observational evidence on circulation changes is still not reconciled with model simulations and with our mechanistic understanding. The key open questions on large-scale circulation changes and their possible impacts on the climate system, that will be discussed during this talk, are: (1) Process understanding: How is tracer transport (that is detectable from observations) coupled to the wave-driven mean mass circulation, the residual circulation? (2) Reconcile observations, models and reanalysis: Is decadal-scale variability causing the differences between observational records and models? Were different processes acting during the recent past compared to the long-term climate record typically analysed in global models?