München 2019 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SYKM: Symposium Kosmologische Modellbildung

SYKM 1: Cosmological Model-Building

SYKM 1.3: Hauptvortrag

Dienstag, 19. März 2019, 17:50–18:30, HS 4

Bayes, datasets, and priors in the hunt for dark energy — •Michela Massimi — School of Philosophy, University of Edinburgh, UK

Bayesian methods are ubiquitous in contemporary observational cosmology. The Bayes factor enters in at least three main tasks: cross-checking datasets for consistency; estimating cosmological parameters; and model selection. This talk explores some epistemic limits of using the Bayes factor for delivering on these three tasks. The Dark Energy Survey (DES) and its recent Year 1 results nicely illustrate prospects and problems concerning the use of the Bayes factor in the hunt for dark energy.