Regensburg 2019 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 31: Nonlinear Dynamics, Synchronization and Chaos

DY 31.1: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 3. April 2019, 10:00–10:15, H20

Scale-dependent Error Growth in Multi-hierarchical Systems — •Jonathan Brisch and Holger Kantz — Max-Planck-Institut für Physik komplexer Systeme, Dresden, Deutschland

Scale-dependent error growth rates can been found, e.g., in two-dimensional turbulence and global weather forecasting models. Both models mentioned admit turbulence and exhibit dynamics on different time and length scales. In this talk I will show that the latter fact is crucial to generate scale-dependent error growth. Thereby we gain insights into the dynamical mechanisms which might be responsible for the fact that real weather forecasts posses an intrinsic limit on forecast time, irrespective of the accuracy of input observations. For this, I introduce a toy-model with a hierarchical coupling between chaotic systems with different time and length scales. I will furthermore discuss the theoretical case of infinite hierarchies in the limit of vanishing perturbations in order to show that these systems have a finite range of predictability independent of the magnitude of the initial perturbation.