Regensburg 2019 – scientific programme

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 50: Poster: Nonlinear Systems, Patterns, Flows ..

DY 50.19: Poster

Thursday, April 4, 2019, 15:00–18:00, Poster B2

Wind speed modeling by nested ARIMA processes — •So-Kumneth Sim, Philipp Maass, and Pedro Lind — Universität Osnabrück, Barbarastraße 7, 49076 Osnabrück

Wind speed modelling is of increasing interest, both for basic research and for applications, as, e.g. for wind turbines development and strate- gies to construct large wind power plants. Generally, such modelling is hampered by the non-stationary features of wind speed data that, to a large extent, reflect the turbulent dynamics in the atmosphere. We study how these features can be captured by nested ARIMA models. In this approach, wind speed fluctuations in given time windows are modelled by one stochastic process, and the parameter variation between successive windows by another one. For deriving the wind speed model, we use 20 months data collected at the FINO1 platform at the North Sea and use a variable transformation that best maps the wind speed onto a Gaussian random variable. We find that wind speed increments can be well reproduced for up to four standard de- viations. The distributions of extreme variations, however, strongly deviate from the model predictions.