Regensburg 2019 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 7: Social Systems, Opinion and Group Formation I

SOE 7.1: Vortrag

Montag, 1. April 2019, 16:00–16:15, H17

Investigating viral dynamics using cellular automata on mobility networks — •Rory Humphries, Philipp Hövel, and Kieran Mulchrone — School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Cork

The prevalence of anti-biotic resistant bacteria is increasing at a rate outpacing the development of new effective drugs. Developing new ways of tackling epidemics is an important consideration in the future as prevention may become more important than cure. The goal of this contribution is to model the spatial path that a disease is most likely to follow, and to identify areas to be hardest hit. A SEIR model realized as a cellular automaton is investigated. One major challenge for modelling viral dynamics on large spatial scales is the implementation of the movement of individuals, a major facilitator of the spread of disease. Thus, a focal point of this contribution addresses the resulting complex spatial dynamics. For the description of mobility, we consider Lévy processes as they may provide a quite natural model for the random movement of people across all spatial scales, by allowing for more localised diffusive dynamics as well as long range jumps.