Dresden 2020 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 6: Poster

SOE 6.18: Poster

Montag, 16. März 2020, 17:00–20:00, P2/4OG

Impact of temporal correlations on high risk outbreaks — •Sina Sajjadi, Mohammad Reza Ejtehadi, and Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad — Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

In this work, we first propose a quantitative approach to detect high risk outbreaks of independent and coinfective SIR dynamics on three empirical networks: a school, a conference and a hospital contact network. This measurement is based on the k-mean clustering method and identify proper samples for calculating the mean outbreak size and the outbreak probability. Then we study systematically impact of different temporal correlations on high risk outbreaks by different shuffling. We observe that in the coinfection process, randomization of the sequence of the events makes the outbreak, i.e. the mean outbreak size of high risk cases, more pervasive. On the other hand these correlations don't have a consistent effect on the independent infection dynamics, and can either decrease or increase this mean. Our results suggest that some sort of randomizing contacts in organization level of schools, events or hospitals might help to suppress the spreading dynamics while the risk of an outbreak is high.