Dresden 2020 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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UP: Fachverband Umweltphysik

UP 2: Climate, Climate modelling & Energy

UP 2.3: Vortrag

Dienstag, 17. März 2020, 10:40–11:00, HSZ 105

Understanding and modeling the scaling spectrum of climate — •Beatrice Ellerhoff and Kira Rehfeld — Institute of Environmental Physics, INF 229, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany

Modeling climate dynamics in a comprehensive way and improving its predictability in a warming world requires a better understanding of climate variability across scales. However, fundamental mechanisms governing variability on long timescales are still poorly understood. The temporal evolution of climate can be inferred from paleoclimate records, such as ice cores or marine sediments. The reconstructed continuous spectrum of surface temperature shows a scaling break, following different power-laws on monthly to decadal versus millennial to longer periods. It is yet mostly unexplained, how these power-laws arise and whether a coupling between different timescales can be deduced from it. We study these questions by comparing and applying spectral analyses to paleoclimate records and climate model simulations for the Quaternary. The temperature spectrum is computed from both, climate forcings and responses on diurnal to astronomical timescales. Higher order spectra test for correlations between forcings and responses. In particular, the bispectrum and bicoherence is computed for statistical processes and evaluated for temperature records in order to study whether the scaling properties are related to energy transfers between different states in time. We elaborate the potential of these methods to reveal dynamical processes governing the continuous spectrum of surface temperature.