BPCPPDYSOE21 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 1: COVID-19 pandemics through the lens of physics (org.: Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad and Philipp Hövel)

SOE 1.5: Hauptvortrag

Montag, 22. März 2021, 11:00–11:40, SOEa

data-driven modeling of COVID-19 pandemic — •Yamir Moreno — Institute BIFI, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza 50018

The new Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has forced an unprecedented response from health authorities worldwide and the World Health Organization. Despite the adoption of drastic measures, the pandemic is still ongoing worldwide, and surges of infections are being observed in more than 188 countries. Even with vaccination campaigns starting to roll out, specific pharmaceutical interventions need to be adopted nowadays to reduce the pressure over health-care systems. Here we show results that correspond to different stages of the pandemic using data-driven modeling. Specifically, we present simulations using data-driven models tailored to mobility data from China, Spain, and the U.S. The models are used to estimate the effectiveness of customary public interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in these locations as well as to calculate heard immunity thresholds of realistic populations and vaccine coverage needed to protect them. Our main findings highlight that having a coordinated response system could be key for the containment of the spread of COVID19 and its possible eradication at the lowest possible cost.