BPCPPDYSOE21 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 3: Poster

SOE 3.6: Poster

Montag, 22. März 2021, 17:30–19:30, SOEp

Burstiness and accuracy of collective decision-making — •Mariko Ito — Rikkyo University, Tokyo, Japan

In the decision-making of an individual, others’ opinions can significantly affect when and what he/she states. Kurvers et al. [1] empirically showed that informative individuals tend to answer earlier than the others when each individual in a group is allowed to answer any time for a binary choice problem. They also exhibited that the group performance is high in the collective decision-making with such self-organised orders compared to that in the case where individuals make decisions independently. Here my interest is whether the distribution of the interval between statements has any information about the quality of their collective decision-making as well as the order of the statements.

I analysed the data in Kurvers et al. and derived the burstiness parameter B, the strength of burstiness [2]. Burst is the phenomenon where events, i.e., statements in our case, frequently occur in short periods while that rarely occur in long periods. I found that the greater is B, the higher is the group performance. The value of B was positively correlated with the group performance even when individuals made decisions independently. These results suggest that individuals with stronger confidence can cause a more bursty sequence of their statements.

[1] Kurvers et al., R. Soc. Open Sci., 2015. [2] Goh and Barabási, EPL, 2008.