SKM 2021 – scientific programme

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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 7: Nuclear Archeology

AGA 7.2: Talk

Friday, October 1, 2021, 11:45–12:15, H8

Uncertainty Quantification of Plutonium Production Estimates Using the Isotope Ratio Method — •Benjamin Jung and Malte Göttsche — RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

An understanding of fissile material production histories is essential to enable nuclear disarmament. The Isotope Ratio Method is a technique to estimate the lifetime plutonium production of shut-down reactors. Robust uncertainty assessments are crucial to determine whether these plutonium estimates are consistent with a state's declaration. With Monte Carlo methods and sensitivity analysis techniques, we examine which impact different magnitudes of various uncertainty sources have, using a CANDU 6 and the graphite-moderated Yongbyon reactors as models. The results show that, in particular, uncertain burnup values and, to a lesser degree, nuclear data uncertainties impact the overall uncertainty. To appropriately consider this, we propose a new sequence of applying the Isotope Ratio Method, which calculates tolerance intervals (as opposed to mean values with a standard deviation). The scenarios considered here result in intervals of approximately +/- 10% around the plutonium estimate, suggesting possibly larger uncertainties of the Isotope Ratio Method than previously assumed.