SKM 2021 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SYCO: Symposium The Physics of CoViD Infections
SYCO 1: The Physics of CoViD Infections
SYCO 1.5: Hauptvortrag
Montag, 27. September 2021, 15:45–16:15, Audimax 1
Beyond the demographic vaccine distribution: Where, when and to whom should vaccines be provided first? — •Benno Liebchen1, Jens Grauer2, Fabian Schwarzendahl2, and Hartmut Löwen2 — 1Technische Universität Darmstadt, Hochschulstr. 8, 64289 Darmstadt — 2Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf, Universitätsstrasse 1, 40225 Düsseldorf
Once vaccines become available in a pandemic disease they are typically distributed demographically. This is in line with vaccination guidelines which largely focus on the question "to whom first?". In this talk we explore if lives could potentially be saved by asking also "where and when to provide vaccines first". To answer this question we propose alternative (non-demographic) vaccine distribution strategies and test their impact on the disease evolution within a newly developed nonuniform statistical mean-field model [1]. We find that a sequential prioritization of regions where infection numbers currently spread fastest is generically more effective than distributing vaccines demographically. These results are meant as a starting point to inspire systematic explorations of non-demographic vaccine distribution strategies aiming to find the optimal compromise between the prioritization of risk groups and highly affected regions. Towards the end of the talk we discuss recent results on possible mutation-induced phenomena in infectious-diseases and their response to vaccination [2].
[1] J. Grauer, H. Löwen, B. Liebchen, Sci. Rep. 10, 1 (2020)
[2] F. Schwarzendahl, J. Grauer, B. Liebchen, H. Löwen, medRxiv (2021)